Horse Racing Betting System - Designing a Simple System
by:
Keith Driscoll
Putting together a system is not as difficult as it may
sound, even for a beginner. The important thing, and with
any betting, is that you write down every rule and follow it
for at least 100 bets. You do not need to trade real money,
paper trading is best at first. If after 100 bets it is in
profit, you can then give it a betting bank and start
gambling.
Starting an untested system with real money, and packing it in on its
first losing run, putting it down as failed, will only cost
you more and more money in the long term. Being patient
saves you money.
So let us get down to starting a system eh? I’ll show you below how simple
they are to put together, this example is profitable, so no
reason why you can not follow it with a betting bank, but
its yearly profits are not huge, but have a go at your own,
always making sure that you understand way a rule works.
The system below is designed for National Hunt racing.
‘The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System’
Rule 1: Non-Handicap races only.
This ensures that we do not include handicap races, which are more
difficult to get profitable systems out of. Although when
you do they are more profitable than non-handicap races.
Rule 2: Forecast Favourite only (if joint VOID bet)
Just to make sure we have one clear qualifier for our non-handicap race.
Rule 3: Forecast price must be odds on.
I know that the lower the odds the more likely it is to win, although the
lower the odds the smaller the profit for a new bank.
The first 3 rules of any systems I quantify as the main system rules, they
ensure we have the main set of qualifiers we are looking
for. Those rules after, I regard as filters to take out any
facts I know are not profitable long term.
Rule 4: Horse age must be 6+
This is because in the UK, horses are not generally full wound up for
jumping until they are at least 6, so those of a lower age
have erratic results that do not prove profitable, so no use
including them.
Rule 5: Horse must have finished 2nd or worse on its last run.
Horses that won last time out usually go off at lower odds than they
should, so an edge is taken away.
Rule 6: Must be a gelding.
Geldings win the majority of races over fences, and are generally have the
most consistent and reliable form.
Rule 7: Going must be Good-Soft or better.
Any softer than this and results can get a bit random.
That is it. Over the last 10 years it has produced a 48pt profit even at
those low odds, and a 63% SR overall. It has had 3 losing
years in that period, the worst being 5pts, but using the
betting exchange prices, they would also have shown a
profit.. There are around 100 bets per year.
So you can see by this example, it does not profit every year, but long
term it still shows a profit, and it is long term that any
professional gambler will tell you is the only time span
that matters.
About The Author
(c) Win2Win Limited.
Keith Driscoll has been a full time professional gambler since 1998, and
offers free advice on staking & betting on his web
site at http://www.win2win.co.uk Access to the forum
is also free.
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